WiMAX or TDD-LTE in India?

I think QUALCOMM and Ericson are making a lot of effort to accelerate the market of TD-LTE in Indian BWA spectrum. I have high regards to their outlook and also respect their companies view and strategy; however I also have some facts to report which might give you data points to form a practical opinion.

Fortunately, I had the opportunity to meet executives from Qualcomm, Ericson and Nokia as the spectrum auctions are approaching. We discussed range of interesting topics especially their intentions for pushing TD-LTE and maturity of TDD-LTE for a commercial deployment in a very price sensitive market.

Data Point 1 : China Mobile is shifting from their current plans of 2.3 GHz to 2.5 GHz as 2.3 GHz is extensively used by military of China and hence suppliers claim that CMCC will provide enough ecosystem development opportunity for India to achieve economics of scale is not very rosy. This is a fresh development and will have impact on TD-LTE products in 2.3 GHz frequency. Immediately, CMCC, Clearwire and other TDD proponent submitted new work item in 3GPP group to prioritize the development of TD-LTE in 2.5 GHz.

Data Point 2: India is a price sensitive market and current prices of LTE TDD devices are way too high for a meaning full deployment. I am told that the price of devices in Teliasonera Network is in the range of US$ 150 which is too far above the ground as compared to current prices of WIMAX dongles. Current prices of WiMAX dongles are in the range of sub US$ 30 . The curve of device prices to reach sub US$ 30 would be essentially be same as we witnessed in WiMAX, and it may take up-to 12-24 months to reach those levels. Situation is further worsened by limited operators planning to deploy LTE TD in 2.3 GHz.

Data Point 3 : Ericson and Nokia believes that TD-LTE is ready , but Huawei and ZTE has very different view and as per them it will take at least two more years for TD-LTE to reach current levels of WiMAX as CMCC is still deploying their TD-SCDMA networks and they will actually wait sometime until capex incurred in up gradation from TD-SCDMA is recovered. CMCC will continue showcasing TD-LTE trials and other competitive advantages as they are also interested in controlling TD-LTE IPRs.

Believe it or not, the price which Indian operators will pay for acquiring BWA spectrum would be in the range of US$ 500M to 1 B. The chance of operators waiting for TDD-LTE to get matured for deployment is not a practical case. Operators will instead develop a strategy of smooth migration towards their next evolution with approach to acquire customer today and remain profitable in coming year. As I also reported earlier that number of broadband connections in India is less than 2% of total voice subscriptions. The market has potential and what 2G has done in voice; 4G will repeat the story in Data.

WiMAX migration towards LTE Rel 8 is possible with major suppliers like Huawei , ZTE , Motorola and Samsung committing a path towards TDD LTE in case market dynamics favors TD-LTE. Radio is LTE capable and with replacement of baseband units, same hardware can be migrated to LTE Rel 8.

Thanks,BP