• Data being positioned as the centre of business strategy, with operators aiming to offset the weakness in voice revenues with increasing data revenues.
• The ARPU charts of Top 30 club were dominated by NTTDoCoMo, KDDI, Verizon, Sprint, Telenor, Singtel, Vodafone, and AT&T.
• Increase in data revenue as a % of service revenue continues, with North America’s overall data revenue accounted for 30.5% of total mobile service revenue in the region during 1Q10, versus Asia-Pacific’s 28.9%, and Western Europe’s 27.3%.
• The trends in Japans are precursor of what is expected to follow in US, China and India. AT&T reported annual increase of 32% in data, and data grew 16% in Verizon. With 3G networks available in China, and ongoing deployment in India, growth of mobile data is expected to surge in Asia Pacific during FY2011.
• Strong growth continued in mobile broadband subscriptions. Asia-Pacific remained as the biggest mobile broadband markets in volume terms, with its subscription base accounted for 44.5% of overall global mobile broadband subscription in 2Q10.

• MTN (South Africa) recorded highest annual increase of around 73% merely highlighting the growth potential in emerging markets. MTN recorded improvement of data ARPU from 1.93 in Q1, 2009 to 3.77 by Q2, 2010.
• Similar growth in uptake of mobile data was seen in Vodacom (South Africa) . Vodacom recorded 59 % annual growth from data services. It has increased its ARPU from 1.70 in Q1,2009 to 3.70 by Q2,2010.
• Strong growth in Russia ( Vimple com ) , Malaysia ( Axita ) and Turkey ( Turkcell ) were recorded with annual percentage growth of over 40%.
  

Mobile Broadband Summary

• Asia-Pacific remained the biggest mobile broadband markets in volume terms, with its subscription base accounted for 44.5% of overall global mobile broadband subscription in 1Q10.
• In India, mobile broadband subscription is expected to grow 6.59 times from its current subscription levels of 9.57 million, to 65 million by December, 2011.
• In China, mobile broadband subscription is expected to grow 2.9 times from its current levels of 32 million, to 92 Million by December, 2011.

Average Mobile Broadband Pricing Summary, Q2,2010

• Most expensive mobile broadband subscription was recorded in South Africa. The data uptake among South African Operators like MTN and Vodacom was among the highest globally. Vodcaom mobile broadband subscription in Q2,2010 was US$ 97.0

  

• Middle East recorded second highest data subscription ARPUs among global operators. Q-Tel average subscription price was US$ 63.89 in Q2,2010. Ethihad Etisalat recorded $ 59.84 as average subscription price during the same period.
• In US/Canada , following average subscription prices were observed.
  • Sprint Nextel – USD 59.90
  • US Cellular – USD 49.95
  • AT&T Mobility- USD 47.50
  • Rogers Wireless Communications – USD 43.35
  • SaskTel Mobility – USD 42.14
  • Verizon Wireless – USD 38.99
  • T-Mobile USA – 32. 49
• In Asia Pacific, following average subscription prices were observed.
  • Softbank – USD 75
  • Vodafone NewZeland – 34.54
  • Hutchinson 3G – 33.25
  • Optus – 32.47
  • SingTel – 29.80
  • Vodafone – 28.14
  • Tata Indicom – USD 20
• In Western Europe , following average subscription prices were observed;

  

Sprint Nextel Chief Executive Dan Hesse said that in about two years, monthly cell phone bills will focus on the amount of data used and move away from the number of available voice minutes. Sprint has already driven much of that migration with its own aggressive rate plans, which lump in unlimited data, minutes and text messages at a single, flat-rate price. Sprint is expected to provide improved 3Q results as their positioning of aggressive rate plans, with unlimited data, minutes and text messages at a single flat-rate price, was welcomed by their customers. Sprints unlimited data plans starts around $ 69.9 with 4G connectivity.

We watched MetroPCS taking similar philosophy as that of Sprint with the launch of “all you can eat plans” in their new LTE network in Vegas and Dallas. I would say that both operators are targeting high end data hungry customers in their network. Recent trends in mobile data proclaim the fact that data is being positioned as the centre of business strategy, with operators aiming to offset their weakness in voice revenues with increasing data revenues.

We observed trends in TeliaSonera LTE network in Nordic region, and Sweden. The operator is targeting high end customers with differentiated services and bigger pipes. I do not observe any content driven model, but QoS based charging as a differentiation to promote 4G. The reason consumer would like to buy a 4G services could be twofold. First, if his monthly consumption is between 10-100 GB; and his speed requirement is higher than HSPA delivery capability.
The debate pertaining to positioning of 4G services were also heard in India, where operators are busy is deploying 3G networks with 4G spectrum waiting for their attention. The real challenge for Indian operators is the positioning of 4G. But, if we look TeliaSonera who is positioning 4G as premium services over 3G with higher QoS, speeds and Usage.

India has other challenges in broadband which is not comparable to their western counterparts. The country is lacking broadband penetration and has modest 10 million broadband connections which are less than 5% of households in country. Compare this with China, which has more than 20% penetration or Sweden with over 55% household broadband penetration. 4G in India has the potential to bridge the gap between low broadband penetration and affordable service. India has one of the lowest voice ARPUs among other nations and demands similar delivery models over wireless from broadband services.

A 1Mbps average unlimited plan in India is around US$ 20 currently. Indian wireless market is predominantly prepaid. A three Gigabyte prepaid data connection in India is roughly US$ 13. With five new 3G operators expected to launch data services in next 3-6 months, prices of mobile broadband services is expected to decline fast.

MTNL the state owned operators has launched 3G services earlier this year could be the precursor of 3G tariffs in India. A one gigabyte prepaid data over MTNLs 3G network is around USD 10.

Indian operators has earlier warned that prices for its 3G services will not be cheap, particularly for its city-dwelling customers, as mobile operators look to recoup the high cost of acquiring spectrum. The exorbitantly high cost of 4G spectrum, and pressure of delivering broadband at current levels would not encourage unlimited mobile broadband plans. We will have to wait for a while to see if India operators are willing to support unlimited broadband services in their upcoming 3G and 4G networks.

Figure : Quarterly Wireless Revenues (1 Jan 2010 to 31 March 2010)

AT&T Reported 29.8% wireless data revenue growth in Q1, 2010. AT&T reported wireless data revenues were up $947 million y-o-y, driven by continued rapid adoption of smartphones and industry leading access to applications. Driven by strong data growth, postpaid subscriber ARPU increased 3.9 percent versus the year-earlier quarter to $61.89.This marked the fifth consecutive quarter AT&T has posted a year-over-year increase in postpaid ARPU. Postpaid data ARPU reached $20.13, up 21.9 percent versus the year earlier quarter, and total postpaid subscriber revenues continued recent trends, with solid double-digit growth, reflecting increases in both voice and data.

.

>Wireless network initiatives by AT&T to support growing wireless data

Nations largest Wi-Fi Network: AT&T has built the nation’s largest Wi-Fi network, with more than 20,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Hot Spots in the U.S. and access to more than 125,000 hotspots around the globe. AT&T’s 3G network covers 80% of the US population and it has embarked and aggressive plan to further enhance its mobile network capabilities. The

AT&T announced their 4G partners to build LTE network. AT&T has announced their plans to build LTE network and contracted Alcatel Lucent and Ericsson as their LTE equipment suppliers. However the operator believes that LTE has its own time to come and may not be ready for a large scale deployment in near future. The operator is adopting a middle strategy to upgrade their current network to HSPA+ and LTE later.

HSPA as a short term strategy for immediate delivery: In January AT&T deployed HSPA 7.2 software nationwide. The company is now deploying additional backhaul connections to cell towers to support HSPA 7.2 and future LTE deployments.

These software and backhaul upgrades are expected to double the theoretical peak speeds of AT&T’s 3G network, although actual speeds will be less depending on location and environment. By the end of 2010, the company expects the majority of its mobile data traffic will be carried over the expanded fiber-based HSPA 7.2 and LTE-capable backhaul. AT&T offers 10 HSPA 7.2-compatible devices today, with millions of customers already using them.

>Wireless Innovation and driving data growth with application and devices

Introduction of tiered and flexible charging for data: AT&T introduced new wireless data plans that make the benefits of the mobile Internet more affordable for their consumers. Plans start at a lower price point and allow customers to migrate up as their data needs grow. Customers can pick the new data plan that best meets their needs — either a $15 per month entry plan (DataPlus) or a $25 per month plan (Data Pro) with 10 times more data.

Android based smart phones: AT&T Launched its first device on the Android platform, the Motorola BACKFLIP which offers AT&T customers a new way to connect to their favorite people, content and applications. AT&T announced the upcoming launch of the Dell Aero, which will be Dell’s first smartphone available in the U.S. and it will feature a new, custom user interface and with android OS.

Launch of new mobile data dongles supporting HSPA: Last quarter AT&T launched two new USB dongles capable of supporting HSPA and it come with inbuilt GPS. The built-in GPS functionality opens the door to location-based applications, making it easier than ever for customers to get to their desired destination.

Introduction of home femtocells: Announced national rollout plans for AT&T 3G MicroCell, which allows residential customers to route wireless phone calls and data connections across a home broadband connection.

Launch of Apple Ipad : Apple and AT&T announced breakthrough 3G prepaid data plans for iPad, with easy, on-device activation and management. The iconic device supports 3G and Wi-Fi access networks. AT&T offers a 250 MB plan for 14.95$ and 2 GB plan for $25.00.

He said in particular that tariff in 3G and BWA would remain high and large section of common people would not be able to afford it. This is not a win-win situation for government and people of India. The spectrum for broadband access in particular reached exorbitantly high levels with only two spots made available for auction and the vision of delivering affordable broadband to the masses in India looks challenging.

What would be the impact of high spectrum prices in Mumbai and Delhi?

Assuming an operator brought Mumbai and Delhi spectrum at combined price close to US $ I Billion for BWA application. My analysis predicts that price of mobile broadband services will shoot up 1.5 to 2 times of current levels. This is not an encouraging situation of India Consumers.

• Assuming BWA operator acquires 75 thousand subscribers every quarter in Mumbai and Delhi, which will take them to total of 3M at the end of Q4, 2014.

  

  (Note : Projected subscribers in Mumbai and Delhi)
  

• Using the current average price of Rs 905(US 18, Average price seen in Ev-Do) will make operators stand at negative Rs. 2000 Crores ( approx US$ 400 M) at end of five years. The exorbitantly high BWA spectrum cost would make impossible to offer services at current price levels in country.

  

  (Price in Crores)
  

• To compensate and make the business case viable, anticipate price to go up 1.5 to 2 times higher than current levels. Expect price of services to remain high in next 2-3 years as operators will try to recover the spectrum expenditures and other initial capex. With 1.5 times higher price operator has much better business case and in this scenario he will stand at cash flow positive of Rs.140 Crore (Approx 30 US$ M) .

  

  (Price in Crores)
  

What to expect in Indian wireless broadband market?

• To compensate and make the business case viable, anticipate mobile broadband service price to go up 1.5 to 2 times higher than current levels. Expect price of services to remain high in next 2-3 years as operators will try to recover the spectrum expenditures and other initial capex.
• Expect coexistence of Enterprise services in the same BWA RAN to make business case more viable and attractive.
• Expect low device prices to make entry cost as minimum as possible. Operators may subsidize devices or bundle low cost netbook to boost uptake of mobile broadband services. The low cost net tops from Intel and other variant may become popular.
• Without doubt India will have tiered pricing and differential QoS based services to gain every bit out of the network.
• The high cost of spectrum will require mass scale adoption among consumers. This is an interesting challenge of acquiring high volume subscribers, delivering true mobile broadband experience and remains competitive in offerings for BWA operators. I anticipate lot of innovation in technology, policy, charging, device and services.
• If WiMAX , which has upper hand today becomes natural choice for operators than 16m will have a very important role to play in India broadband market. It’s all about acquiring extra subscriber per base station with limited amount spectrum while remain competitive.

Finally, we could have worked out a win-win situation for both consumers and operators, if enough spectrum would had been made available for auction with encouragement for new players to make broadband as affordable as possible for the people of India. I am sure we can learn from Japanese regulator who has made spectrum available for free with only condition of a nationwide deployment, benefiting people of Japan and assisting economy.

(Views expressed here are my own and by no means reflect my company’s opinion)

Related Readings;

Why can’t we learn from mango traders?

Delivering affordable broadband in India

It’s not wise to sell Mercedes to everyone

The industry around 4G FDD is clearly evolving towards LTE as major operators committed their plans or intentions to move into LTE. However, the 4G TDD path for LTE is not going to be an easy ride owing to the competition from WiMAX. Most of the current WiMAX deployments are in TDD and operators would certainly like to recover their investments before migrating to any other evolving technologies in near future.

Operators have also realized that the investments made in building network based on WiMAX TDD cannot be turned in to LTE-TDD overnight even if they like to. Clearwire for instance acquired more than 300k subscriber last quarter marking its entry to 1 Million mobile broadband clubs. If they choose to migrate to LTE, what will happen to those 1M wimax devices? By the time TDD LTE matures clearwire will acquire anywhere between 3 to 5 Million subscribers and upgrading a 5 Million serving WiMAX network to a new TDD LTE RAN might just not be a practical case. I am sure Yota , UQ, Atheeb, Taiwanese WiMAX operators and new WiMAX deployments expected in India would also face with similar dilemma.

It appears like operators too has recognized the fact and asked leading 16e suppliers to take 16m research and development in priority and show them a working 16m system quickly. The ecosystem of 16m could be as large as TDD-LTE or better since all WiMAX TDD operators will naturally migrate to 16m, while the only operator who is behind TDD-LTE is China Mobile. If Indian BWA operators choose WiMAX path than odds are quite high that 16m TDD ecosystem may supersede TDD-LTE.

Samsung, Motorola and Huawei may demonstrate a working 16m trail systems to their operators by end of this year. IEEE standardization is on track and it is expected to release final 16m draft by Q1 2011. Sequans and Beceem plans to release 16e/16m based engineering samples in early 2011. The development effort for migrating core network elements like ASN-GW, AAA and others to 16m is estimated minimal and hence early readiness can be expected.

The whole battle of LTE vs WiMAX is basically turning around two facades. First, It is highly publicized that Performance of LTE –TD based system will be superior to 16e. Second, TD-LTE ecosystem will bring vast economy of scale to operators. I spent some time to figure out the performance of TD-LTE and WiMAX 16e. Since WiMAX 16e doesn’t support 20 Mhz channels, on a 10 MHz of channel bandwith following observations were noted.

• Most of the current WiMAX deployments are on a reuse 3 network. If WiMAX is deployed in reuse 3 network and LTE is deployed in Reuse 1 network, than performance of WiMAX systems is better than LTE Rel 8. Data presented below is measured in different commercial wimax networks and LTE is based in NGMN simulations.

  

• LTE Rel 8 was ratified recently (2009), and in LTE release 8 special attentions were given to introduce methods to circumvent interference and improve overall network efficiency. 16e if deployed in reuse 1 scenario will perform inferior as compared to LTE Rel8. This is one of the major rationales behind most of the 16e deployments in 30MHz of spectrum.
• 16m is expected to be deployed in reuse 1 networks and has more advanced interference mitigation techniques and supports even higher spectral efficiency than LTE Rel 8.

  

WiMAX Forum recognized these aspects and in the last general meeting at Taiwan, they have included features like interference mitigation, frequency reuse 1 support, downlink beamforming and 4X2 Mimo in their technology roadmap for 2010. Roadmap features will be further enhanced to support IMT-A requirement by 2012 with introduction to 4×4 Mimo, self organizing networks, multicarrier and enhanced locations services.

It would be interesting to see how the 4G TDD ecosystem shapes but definitely 16m has a important role to play.

Suggested Articles:

• 16m for operators
• IEEE expects WiMAX 2 standardization by summer
• MIMO Schemes in 16m

Mangos are my favorite summer fruit. I buy most of my mangoes in Mumbai at a nearby local shop. Back in my hometown we buy most of the mangos from local mango market; otherwise it comes from our mango farms. I am on vacations these days and visiting my parents in my hometown. Yesterday , in a cheerful mood my mother said, why don’t you sell those excess mangos to market? I was all excited to experience the selling session of mangos in the local mango market. Fortunately our mangos are of good quality and I was eager to make a good impression of skilled mango seller in front of my parents.

The way mango is sold in my hometown is quite different than here in Mumbai. Here you can sell them at one tenth of the price you will most likely sell in Mumbai. The rationale could be availability of low wage workers, low transportation and maintenance cost cost and mango farms etc. In fact the average monthly income of the people residing in Maihar(the name of my hometown) is 5 to 10 times lower than average monthly income of people in Mumbai. After selling my mangos it came to my mind, why can’t we have different charging mechanism in broadband for different cities based on their paying capabilities and social economic factors? After all you can’t sell Mercedes to everyone.

By evening we sold our mangos and I was talking to my old school acquaintance, a mutual friend of ours asked me, is there a way to take lessons in civil engineering without attending college, since my parents cannot afford expenditure of a formal education? He further explained that to me that in his past he has worked in building state roads, small dams, culverts and duplex houses. I actually consoled him by saying, “Nor Bill Gates or Steve Jobs had formal engineering degrees but they generated more jobs than others”. Nurture your passion with persistence and backed by a burning desire, I am sure nothing in the world will come in your way. However I was eager to show him the free lessons available in the internet by the top professors of the country in the field of civil engineering. The lessons were recorded and brought to the people of country by a new initiative by government of India. (Website: http://www.youtube.com/user/nptelhrd )

The only internet connection available for most of the citizen of country residing in other than top 100 cities is through 2G networks like CDMA 1X or GPRS. My CDMA 1X connection was not capable to show him a working streaming video, however he got the suggestion that internet has many promising possibilities for him. If he can get a working internet connection he might learn continuously and improve himself while taking care of his farms.

I do not see a rationale of charging similar broadband prices which is applicable in metro cities to other parts of country. The cost of spectrum, tower rentals, maintenance and manpower is low as compared to metro cities in rural cities and charging mechanism shall apportions these factors. Everyone is interested in showcasing the grandeur speeds of LTE networks or their new 4G WiMAX RAN. It is true that the first LTE network in Telisonera are capable of supporting over 70 Mbps in 10 MHz channels and over 130 Mbps in 20 MHz channels in Sweden and Norway.

(Note : 1 USD is equal to 7.1 SEK)

For a 30 GB connection the monthly broadband price of US$ 85 in Sweden is less than 3% of their gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita. The cost of a 3 GB wireless data connection in rural India is roughly more than 10% of their gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita.

I am sure you will recognize that the debate of tiered charging, data offloading and other business models of 4G data is good for intellectual minds, but we need more common sense from the people who has the power to change
the scenario of broadband in country. At least I understood that the mango traders of Mumbai and Maihar know for sure that the charging mechanism of metro and rural India cannot be made same. I expect more common sense from government, operators and broadband policy makers to enable some of my school mates to take civil engineering lessons while taking care of their farms and cattle’s.

Suggested Reading:

• State and opportunity of broadband in India
• It’s not wise to sell Mercedes to everyone

When Albert Einstien was asked on what got him to introduce the theory of relativity to the world he said “It occurred to me by intuition, and music was the driving force behind that intuition. My discovery was the result of musical perception.”

Music is your own experience, your own thoughts, your wisdom. If you don’t live it, it won’t come out of your horn. Its said there’s a boundary line to music. But with the collaboration of Pandora and Facebook , the boundary is indefinite. Pandora is the perfect destination for anyone who wants to listen to Internet radio catered to their interests and their particular mood at the time. Its a web 2.0 radio station based on radio genome project. By analyzing the essence of music and capturing aspects such as melody, harmony, rhythm, arrangement and lyrics among other musical identities, Pandora and the Music Genome Project are able to predict musical interests based on a sample selection. Pandora assembles literally hundreds of musical attributes or “genes” into a very large Music Genome.

The leading online radio service and world’s biggest social network have now come together which solidify both companies’ dominance, while offering music fans a way to share music with each other that appears to lack any significant downside. The upside for Pandora users is significant, due to the ways in which it broadcasts their taste, helps them discover and enjoy new music through their friends. There are countless ways to do these exact same things elsewhere on the web, and users have already been able to share Pandora stations with friends. But Pandora + Facebook = such an easy math that even the busy or excessively lazy can integrate it into their lives.

Making the listening experience more social was also employed by Pandora, but who would want to make to create a whole set of friends manually on Pandora? Facebook is the social networking king and rules the kingdom defined by web 2.0, so it makes more sense to grab people’s friends by coming into alliance with the ruler.

With the “open social graph” unveiling and the sprinkling of “like” button across the web, Pandora is able to increase its user space, capture its user’s habits and hence assemble more music for the music lovers. Facebook has always focused on building ways for people to connect with each other and share information with their friends. People are shaping on how their information moves through their connections. This collaboration and introduction of “open social graph” puts people at the center of the web. And now, users get the power to create a smarter, personalized web that gets better with every action taken.

One of the most well enjoyed human endeavors these days is social networking. It is mainly because we get to communicate with anyone from any part of the worldwide web by texting, chatting and VOIP or voice over internet phone. There are both great opportunities and huge risks in social networking, similarly to what has occurred with other extremely useful capabilities and technologies that have emerged and gained popularity in society. Using social networks have gained the opportunity and ability to influence many more people than before.

“On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog” (Steiner, 1993), suggests that identities are so hidden online that opportunities would be widely open to all, regardless of background characteristics that may have traditionally disadvantaged some people compared to others. The idea that people would be on an equal footing online assumes that offline characteristics are not mirrored in people’s online pursuits. Social networking websites provide a variety of services, such as users’ own unique “space,” as well as enabling them to share photos and videos, maintain blogs, and encourage group interactions through chat rooms, instant messaging (IM), and e-mail. This seems to say that our society is much more open now, and much more open to posting intimate information online, but it also is rather anonymous in a way, because users never see, meet, or touch the person they communicate with, and so, even though they know intimate details, they do not really know the person at all.

But have we ever given a thought on the fact that we have a lot more friends than we used to. All these not-real friends we have on Facebook, MySpace, Orkut etc — we had them before, we just didn’t count them. So, we can now measure things we couldn’t measure before.

Social networking may sound fluffy, but it can translate into real benefits for business. It’s taking the internet by storm and is revolutionizing the way society connects and interacts with each other. What once was thought to be an internet fad is now commanding the attention of people and businesses around the world. Although social networking began primarily as a medium to allow individuals with similar interests to interact on a social level, it has since evolved to give businesses and professionals a place to connect and grow their network of contacts and even careers.

In a social networking arena, world is governed by what is called as “three degrees of influence” — that is, your friend’s friend’s friend, most likely someone you don’t even know — who indirectly influences your actions and emotions and this is changing the advertising profoundly, not just by cutting into the traditional media budgets but also by revolutionizing the way advertisers reach consumers. Social ads let Facebook users share their interactions with different brands throughout their peer network through news feeds. Facebook lets local and national businesses and organizations, such as restaurants, bars, cafés, sports teams, artists, churches, health and fitness centers, and even politicians, create pages with which users can interact by adding them to their profile. They also can choose to share this information with friends in their network through news feeds.

These are just some of the ways in which Social networking websites engage consumers by letting them create content and become the vanguards of different brands. Even more interesting, advertising on Social networking websites generally is highly targeted and relevant. Because the information comes from a friend they perceive they can trust, users are more likely to pay attention to messages that come through the news feed.

Hence, with the gaining popularity, social networking websites are just programmed to bring you a friend. But is also programmed to make money, and they make money by data mining and by selling virtual ads.

Things do spread to social networks because social networks online are much more clearly defined than the offline connections. And hence despite dire predictions from naysayers who warned that spending too much time online would be damaging to real-life relationships, the opposite appears to be true. The rise of social networking websites indicates a shift in the organization of online communities. While websites dedicated to communities of interest still exist and prosper, social networking websites are primarily organized around people, not interests.

Suggested Reading : Do you have a location strategy ?

]]> http://www.beyond4g.org/presence-is-everything/feed 0 http://www.beyond4g.org/whitepaper-state-and-opportunity-of-broadband-in-india http://www.beyond4g.org/whitepaper-state-and-opportunity-of-broadband-in-india#comments Tue, 20 Apr 2010 16:24:04 +0000 BP Tiwari http://www.beyond4g.org/?p=966 Executive Summary

It’s been a dream run for voice in India. India positions itself as number two nation in new world order. However the broadband leadership is dominated by Southkorea, Japan, Hongkong, Sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands, Singapore, Luxemburg, Denmark and Norway.  

India ranked 62 in global broadband leadership scale, with average download and upload speeds recorded way below than the needs of current internet applications. The current internet visual applications require consistent 2Mbps downlink and 1 Mbps uplink data rates.

In our analysis we found that the average broadband speed in country is below 600 kbps in downlink and 300 kbps in uplink. The leading broadband nations were found above 8 Mbps in downlink and 2.5 Mbps in uplink and the access latencies were found below 80 milliseconds[1].

Broadband penetration by number of households was estimated between 5 to 6 %. The availability of broadband networks has especially improved after beginning of Ev-Do services in country.  The mobile broadband networks were deployed in top 100 cities by four wireless operators i.e. Reliance, TATA, BSNL and MTS.

The data collected from Ev-Do Networks in five metro cities imply average delivery of 300 kbps in downlink and 150 kbps in uplink. On average, Hyderabad performed best with 250-350 kbps average download speed and 100-125 kbps average upload speed and New Delhi was at the bottom with 240 kbps for download and 130 kbps for upload.

The number of broadband connections in country is less than 10 Million, which is fewer than 2 % of the total number of voice subscriptions in India. Total internet connection in India is about 15 Million as per statistics released by regulatory of India, representing less than 1% of total population.

The principal challenges in delivering broadband to masses are excessively high right way charges, fragmented cable operators, non cooperation in last mile copper unbundling and low data ARPU. The total amount of spectrum allocated by regulators for broadband application in country was too little to support proliferation of broadband services.

The new 3G/BWA spectrum and the advent WiMAX and LTE based 4G technologies will play crucial role in shaping broadband industry in India. Our analysis in this paper exemplifies the competence of 4G technologies like WiMAX and LTE to deliver broadband in most competitive manner. 4G technologies has the potential to bridge the digital data gap in India and will play very similar role  what 2G technologies played in Voice.

A need for strong national broadband policy is felt to foster social and economic development in India and accomplish broadband leadership. Analysis presented in the paper estimates allocation of at least 270 MHz of new spectrum in next five years and over 450 MHz of spectrum in next 10 years for broadband applications would be inevitably required to take India to top broadband nations.

State and Opportunity of Broadband in India v1.0

Expected average data consumption for iPad users will stay around 3 GB/Month as per my estimates. Average monthly data consumption will remain somewhere between iphone and notebooks. The increased data consumption of iPad users can present wireless operators with some serious challenge to deal with in coming days. We already hear about 3G cellular networks being swamped with growing data traffic from millions of Apple iPhones. Although carriers are optimistic of offloading a large amount of iPad traffic to Wi-Fi access points when using services indoors and charge a different tariff for that. However I am really unconvinced about availability of Wi-FI networks all the time. Although , AT&T has scored a deal to offer unlimited 3G data on 3G-capable versions of the iPad for $29.99 a month. I still suppose that MACRO networks will serve most of the user generated traffic from iPads .

iPad is a real nice data centric deice which is capable of doing almost everything a net-book can perform. I think real drivers of data in iPad would be social applications especially photo sharing, streaming video like YouTube and movie downloads from Netflix etc. In his new whitepaper “STATE OF THE (MOBILE) BROADBAND NATION” Chetan reported that average performance of 3G networks in US is around 250 kbps in downlink and 120 kbps in uplink.

I suggest if you come across to watch you tube video at these 3G networks than expect some delay, buffer and degraded performance. Although this is not anticipated in Wi-Fi zones but serious video challenges is expected in 3G Macro zones. If you not leveraging video in iPad and then you are underplaying.

Nevertheless the real beauty of iPad is the fact that device is fully unlocked and there is no contract. I suggest you go ahead and test the new 4G WiMAX RAN available in to AT&T price, than even better as you will be able to connect your 3G iphone, your laptop and iPad and get unlimited Wi-Fi US with the 3G/4G hotspot device available with sprint or clearwire. It would be a good idea to test these handy 3G/4G hotspots which can really take your iPad experience couple of times higher with new 4G based WiMAX RAN. If you can find an unlimited data plan similar data.

GIGAOM reported average data rates of 1.2 to 1.7 Mbps in downlink and .6 to .8 Mbps in uplink from sprint 3G/4G mobile hotspot in WiMAX coverage zone. That’s what I am saying; WiMAX and iPad compliment each other when it comes to data.

As LBS become more intuitive to use, require regular updates when on the move and have access to the sophistication of applications like Google Maps and Google Earth, they are expected to drive network traffic to considerable volumes. Operators are strongly interested in LBS as a route to provide true personalized services, and, with true broadband connectivity, they will be able to take advantage of devices with embedded GPS to offer their own and third party services, e.g. using Google Maps or similar. Services such as these raise the possibility of new business models to be developed for charging users or specialist service providers for use of network capacity.

While location detection, location disclosure, proximity search, micro-blogging with geo-tagging, and embedded sensor based location services will become hugely popular and some of them will become enablers of new services in 4G networks. I am particularly excited about the object and image recognition techniques which are regarded as one of the most significant development of the decade.

What is OR(object Recognition) for mobile devices?
OR-M is fundamental to “visual Search” (e.g. Google Goggles), which given its ease of use and intuitiveness, will soon come to dominate search on mobile devices. We have seen Google acquiring Naven Vision in 2006, which specialized in image recognition and betting high in this technology.

“Neven Vision has developed a suite of mobile recognition technologies that enable images to become the interface to digital content—photos of advertisements become hyperlinks to branded content portals, while your camera phone can snap a picture of your face to secure verification of identity and control access to your private data. By equipping customers with an intuitive visual interface that anyone can use, this technology is unlocking vastly untapped market opportunities in Mobile Marketing and Commerce, Personal Security, and Biometric Identity Verification” The goal is to recognize every image.

How does OR works in mobile devices?
OR-M matches an image viewed through the lens of a mobile device’s camera to image in a database by identifying the image’s “feature points”, where shapes, pixels, colors, or brightness change. These are used to establish the unique “Fingerprints” or “visual signature” of an image – in essence a mathematical expression that can contain 10,000 variables. These images’s signature is then compared with that of other known objects in a database.

Enabling location in your 4G networks can allow a whole set of new applications. Are you ready with your location strategy to monetize internet or would you rather experience content by selling dumb pipes?

Clearwire Location update ( download pdf)

Fortunately, I had the opportunity to meet executives from Qualcomm, Ericson and Nokia as the spectrum auctions are approaching. We discussed range of interesting topics especially their intentions for pushing TD-LTE and maturity of TDD-LTE for a commercial deployment in a very price sensitive market.

Data Point 1 : China Mobile is shifting from their current plans of 2.3 GHz to 2.5 GHz as 2.3 GHz is extensively used by military of China and hence suppliers claim that CMCC will provide enough ecosystem development opportunity for India to achieve economics of scale is not very rosy. This is a fresh development and will have impact on TD-LTE products in 2.3 GHz frequency. Immediately, CMCC, Clearwire and other TDD proponent submitted new work item in 3GPP group to prioritize the development of TD-LTE in 2.5 GHz.

Data Point 2: India is a price sensitive market and current prices of LTE TDD devices are way too high for a meaning full deployment. I am told that the price of devices in Teliasonera Network is in the range of US$ 150 which is too far above the ground as compared to current prices of WIMAX dongles. Current prices of WiMAX dongles are in the range of sub US$ 30 . The curve of device prices to reach sub US$ 30 would be essentially be same as we witnessed in WiMAX, and it may take up-to 12-24 months to reach those levels. Situation is further worsened by limited operators planning to deploy LTE TD in 2.3 GHz.

Data Point 3 : Ericson and Nokia believes that TD-LTE is ready , but Huawei and ZTE has very different view and as per them it will take at least two more years for TD-LTE to reach current levels of WiMAX as CMCC is still deploying their TD-SCDMA networks and they will actually wait sometime until capex incurred in up gradation from TD-SCDMA is recovered. CMCC will continue showcasing TD-LTE trials and other competitive advantages as they are also interested in controlling TD-LTE IPRs.

Believe it or not, the price which Indian operators will pay for acquiring BWA spectrum would be in the range of US$ 500M to 1 B. The chance of operators waiting for TDD-LTE to get matured for deployment is not a practical case. Operators will instead develop a strategy of smooth migration towards their next evolution with approach to acquire customer today and remain profitable in coming year. As I also reported earlier that number of broadband connections in India is less than 2% of total voice subscriptions. The market has potential and what 2G has done in voice; 4G will repeat the story in Data.

WiMAX migration towards LTE Rel 8 is possible with major suppliers like Huawei , ZTE , Motorola and Samsung committing a path towards TDD LTE in case market dynamics favors TD-LTE. Radio is LTE capable and with replacement of baseband units, same hardware can be migrated to LTE Rel 8.

Thanks,BP

Kevin C Tofel wrote an interesting article in Gigaom about the killer combination in Netflix and apple’s new device iPad. Bollywood in India is massively popular and you will find traditional movie stores every corner in Mumbai. These traditional movie rental stores normally have collection of Indian movie titles and some popular Hollywood titles which can be rented at monthly fees of less than US$ 8. I talked to one of the local stores in my neighborhood to get an idea about the number of titles they have in their stores. The percentage was even less than two digits as compared to the number of online titles Netflix (12,000) has for streaming. A US$ 8.99 for unlimited access to enormous collection of titles is a convincing deal. I was apprehensive about my neighbored book and movie stores who nave not realized that “change is inevitable and growth is intentional”.

We Love it or hate it; it’s hard not to be astonished by the Hollywood blockbuster-style opening day enjoyed by the iPad. Apple just announced that it sold 300,000 of the devices. At a base price of $499 (for the 16 GB model), that translates into some $150 million on day one. Add to the fact that Apple says nearly a million apps and 250,000 e-books were downloaded.

Estimated sales of iPad is supposed to reach 7.1 million units worldwide in 2010, according to research firm iSuppli, whereas our GigaOM Pro analysts estimate that the conservative sales of the device will be around 6.1 million.

Two aspects which I am curios to analyze is the effect of IPAD on carrier’s wireless data network and changes in traditional business models. The current data consumption of Notebook and other internet centric devices is 4 to 6 GB/Mo as reported by some of the HSPA operators. WiMAX operators, Yota and Clearwire reported 10 and 7 GB/Month of average data traffic in their new 4G networks. A typical Iphone user in US consumes .4 to .8 GB/Month in their 3G enabled iphones. It is generally expected by industry analysts that the consumption of average monthly data in iPad’s would lay in between iphone and notebook consumption.

Independent wireless industry analyst Chetan Sharma estimates that a 3G-enabled iPad will consume about two-thirds as much network capacity as a 3G iPhone. If Apple sells 2.7 million 3G iPads this year, as Piper Jaffray & Co. (PJC) analyst Chris Larsen forecasts, that could be the equivalent of 1.7 million iPhones hitting AT&T’s network.

Startlingly, my own estimates advocate that the consumption of data from iPad’s would be around 4-6 times higher than current iphone consumption. The biggest driving factor is streaming video (Youtube , Netflix etc.) and Social media. To watch one DVD quality streaming video consumer will require anywhere around 1-2 Gigabytes of data.

Expected average data consumption for iPad user will stay around 3.1 GB/Month as per my estimates. iPad consumers could give wireless operators a headache in coming time. We already hear about 3G cellular networks being swamped with growing data traffic from millions of Apple iPhones. Although carriers are optimistic of offloading a large amount of iPad traffic to Wi-Fi access points when using services indoors, which might not as rosy at it, looks.

Change is something which is inevitable and it would be interesting to watch to impact of iPad in operators wireless data networks and my corner book and movie stores.

SU-MIMO: Single-user MIMO (SU-MIMO) schemes are used to improve the link performance, by providing robust transmissions with spatial diversity, or large spatial multiplexing gain and peak data rate to a single AMS, or beamforming gain.

Both open-loop SU-MIMO and closed-loop SU-MIMO are supported for the antenna configurations presented above.

For open-loop SU-MIMO, both spatial multiplexing and transmit diversity schemes are supported. For closed-loop SU-MIMO, codebook based precoding is supported for both TDD and FDD systems. CQI, PMI, and rank feedback can be transmitted by the mobile station to assist the base station’s scheduling, resource allocation, and rate adaptation decisions. CQI, PMI, and rank feedback may or may not be frequency dependent. For closed-loop SU-MIMO, sounding based precoding is supported for TDD systems.

MU-MIMO: Multi-user MIMO (MU-MIMO) schemes are used to enable resource allocation to communicate data to two or more AMSs. MU-MIMO enhances the system throughput.

Multi-user transmission with one stream per user is supported for MU-MIMO. MU-MIMO includes the MIMO configuration of 2Tx antennas to support up to 2 users, and 4Tx or 8Tx antennas to support up to 4 users. Both unitary and non-unitary MU-MIMO linear precoding techniques are supported.

For open-loop MU-MIMO, CQI and preferred stream index feedback may be transmitted to assist the base station’s scheduling, transmission mode switching, and rate adaptation. The CQI is frequency dependent.

For closed-loop multi -user MIMO, codebook based precoding is supported for both TDD and FDD systems. CQI and PMI feedback can be transmitted by the mobile station to assist the base station’s scheduling, resource allocation, and rate adaptation decisions. CQI and PMI feedback may or may not be frequency dependent. For closed-loop multi -user MIMO, sounding based precoding is supported for TDD systems.

Multi BS MIMO

Multi-BS MIMO techniques are supported for improving sector throughput and cell-edge throughput through multi-BS collaborative precoding, network coordinated beamforming, or inter-cell interference nulling. Both open-loop and closed-loop multi-BS MIMO techniques can be considered. For closed-loop multi-BS MIMO, CSI feedback via codebook based feedback or sounding channel will be used. The feedback information may be shared by neighboring BSs via network interface.

COMP – Coordinated multi-point (CoMP) is a new class of transmission schemes for interference reduction in the 16m technology. Enabling features such as network synchronization, cell- and user-specific pilots, feedback of multicell channel state information and synchronous data exchange between the base stations can be used for interference mitigation and for possible macro diversity gain. The collaborative MIMO (Co-MIMO) and the closed-loop macro diversity (CL-MD) techniques are examples of the possible options. For downlink Co-MIMO, multiple BSs perform joint MIMO transmission to multiple MSs located in different cells. Each BS performs multi-user precoding towards multiple MSs, and each MS is benefited from Co-MIMO by receiving multiple streams from multiple BSs. For downlink CL-MD, each group of antennas of one BS performs narrow-band or wide-band single-user precoding with up to two streams independently, and multiple BSs.

Downlink MIMO Modes

Uplink MIMO Modes

Performance of Different MIMO Schemes

There were plenty of questions raised about the importance of Radio access networks in shaping future communication and how would the forum member prepare themselves to prepare for Wireless access technologies.

One such certification which I would like to put into notice of all the attendees who were present in RST forum is IEEE WCET program. The IEEE WCET certification shows that the individual has demonstrated mastery of the internationally recognized body of wireless communication knowledge and has accepted the challenge to stay informed of new developments in the wireless field.

The IEEE Communications Society (IEEE ComSoc) has designed the IEEE WCET certification program to address the worldwide wireless industry’s growing and ever-evolving need for qualified communication professionals who can demonstrate practical problem-solving skills in real-world situations. Individuals who achieve this certification will be recognized as having the required knowledge, skill, and ability to meet wireless challenges in various industry, business, corporate, and organizational settings. You can read more about this certification at http://www.ieee-wcet.org/.

US government raised the Setting of universal floor to 4 Mbps downstream and 1 Mbps by 2020 as the minimum requirement for broadband definition. The new plan calls for making 500 MHz of spectrum available for broadband in the next 10 years. Much of this is likely to come from broadcasters, who aren’t likely to give back any spectrum voluntarily and would prefer being allowed to sell it in private sales. They’re like to find friends on the left who will be concerned about such impact would have on the public interest.

ITU Report M.2072 provides a summary of the market analysis and forecast of evolution of mobile market and services for the future development of IMT-2000, systems beyond IMT-2000 and other systems. This Report has derived market related parameters and provided forecasts for 2010, 2015, and 2020 for the mobile market. These parameters are essential inputs in developing a spectrum estimate, for future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT 2000 in preparation for the World Radio communication Conference 2007.This report also provides examples of potential services and applications of future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT2000 from the year 2010 onwards.

So the natural question that we have in mind is , how much spectrum do we need in next decade to support growing data from mobile networks ?

I estimated with best known spectral efficiencies from LTE Rel8 based systems and Mobile WiMAX based systems moving to LTE A or IMT A. Most of the technology available by the time frame 2010-2015 would provide spectral efficiency of 2 Bit/Hz . This is based on simulations carried out by IEEE and 3GPP groups in particular evaluation methodology .From 2015 more advanced MIMO systems and higher antenna configurations would be supported to improve the amount of data that can be transmitted in similar amount of spectrum to 4 Bits/Hz which will get even higher by 2020.

My analysis based on specific parameters and it shows that regulators would require additional 400-500 MHz of spectrum in next decade to support the growing need of mobile data networks.

Surprisingly, the new US national broadband policy also calls for making 500 MHz of spectrum available for broadband in the next 10 years. And, finally how much spectrum an operator will require to support its growing data needs. Certainly I would say Grab Everything!

Thank, BP

Chetan Sharma Mobile industry prediction: Mobile industry prediction 2010

Mobile Revolution: The Next Mobile Revolution by Rob Glaser

Billing & OSS World – Mobile Data Doesn’t Have to be Expensive

Businessweek – The Truth about Bandwidth

TelecomAsia – Mobile Broadband: Still growing but realism sinks in

Connected Planet – Youtube dominates mobile Internet traffic; mobile VoIP on the rise

Business Journal – The Apple effect on AT&T brings good times and bad

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The amount of traffic internet will generate would compel operators to offload data from their Macro Base station to indoor base stations. At least two solutions are on the table for operators, Femtocells and Wi-Fi offloads.  Both approaches solve the backhaul issue by using customer or 3rd party links (DSL,,MetroE, T1/E1, WISP or others).

WiMAX Femtocells are tiny mobile cell sites using the mobile operators licensed spectrum, supporting all devices and all services.  Thus WiMAX femtocells are a great way to extend coverage and create higher capacity.  If you want to extend data service in places where macro cell coverage is poor, a WiMAX femtocell could be an ideal candidate.  However, WiMAX operators also have an option of extending indoor coverage through Wi-Fi access points. We will examine aspects of WiMAX Femtocells and Wi-Fi for indoor coverage in this article.

Architecture and deployment ease

Femtocell based architecture will require all the management and data traffic to pass through ASN-GW and a security gateway to perform functionality of handovers and security procedures defined in IEEE 802.16e. On the other hand Wi-Fi based systems do not require data traffic to pass through any central location and has much flatter and architecture as compared to WiMAX femtocells. Of course there are associated advantages of using S-GW and ASN-GW in case of WiMAX femtocells.

Economics

The current prices of WiMAX Femto access points are 5 to 10 times higher than the level of prices which Wi-Fi devices have reached. Operators controlled femtocells will come across challenging business economics and retail customer might not be interested in buying WiMAX femtocells at the current price levels. I do not perceive huge demands of WiMAX femto access points in near foreseeable future and hence it would be very difficult for operators to push femto based solutions to their customers. In fact covering a particular building with operator controlled femtocells for providing higher capacity and coverage would face severe ROI challenge as the cost of WiMAX femto Access points and associated infrastructure is way too high as compared to Wi-Fi Access points.

Spectrum

I would definitely emphasize that the amount of data growth expected in the next decade would keep operators always hungry for spectrum. 83 MHz of Wi-Fi spectrum in 2.4 Ghz is ideal for operators to cater the mobile data demand generating out of indoor locations. The next version of wi-fi which is called 802.11n has support for MIMO and even data rates up to 300 mbps can be supported in these tiny access points. The cost of 802.11b/g and 11n devices is not significantly higher.

Worldwide I see operators demanding at least 30MHz of spectrum for BWA application in 2.3, 2.5 and 3.5 Ghz. Most the current WiMAX deployments are in reuse3, and I spot no spectrum left for operators for in building femtocells. In those scenarios Free Wi-Fi spectrum in 2.4 Ghz will in fact help operators to provide sufficient capacity generating from indoor usages.

Devices

The primary sources of mobile data demand are laptops, notebooks and smart phones. Laptops and notebooks have Wi-Fi connectivity.  Wi-Fi chipsets are prevalent and has almost 100% availability in laptops other internet centric devices. Wi-Fi has reached matured level of availability and WiMAX embedded devices will reach these levels in next 5-7 years. ABI research projected 1 billion Wi-Fi chips in 2011 and global shipment of Wi-Fi enabled cell phones to get doubled in between 2009 and 2011. Wi-Fi is not just prevalent in internet centric devices like Laptops and notebooks, actually 90% of the smart phones will be Wi-Fi embedded modules by 2014. The current Wi-Fi chipsets are very competitive in prices and Intel has plans to embed WiMAX+WiFi in their MID’s and all future internet centric devices. [4]
.Intel is ready to ship 6250 – kilmer peak chipsets which will have 2×2 11a/g/n and 16e wimax in 2.3/2.5 and 3.5 GHz. The 11n version is capable of supporting peak data rates up to 300 mbps. There next silicon (evanspeak, targeted for MID’s) which is will support all in one module of 1X2 11 agn , 16e , Bluetooth and GPS in 2.3, 2.5 and 3.5 GHz bands.

Roadmap

WiMAX release 1.5 will focus on WiMAX-WiFi-Bluetooth coexistence and forum is also addressing and evaluating handovers between Wi-Fi and WiMAX.[5]

Summary

PICO base station and Repeaters will continue to play important role in extending coverage, and generating additional capacity in WiMAX Networks [6].. The economics of deploying PICO base stations in enterprise buildings and commercial hubs is encouraging. However, WiMAX Femtocells looks challenging from business case and deployment perspective. I believe that Wi-Fi will continue to complement WiMAX networks and there are numerous other advantages associated with Wi-FI for retail consumers. We have already observed WiMAX+WiFi router introduced by Cealwire ( clearspot),yota(Yota egg) and UQ as demonstration of their capabilities. Operators must keep Wi-Fi in their access strategy in building next generations mobile data networks.

Thanks

We’ve written in the past about how mobile phones are becoming an increasingly indispensable part of our daily lives, and we continue to see how great devices with full Internet browsers and vibrant app marketplaces are driving an explosion of usage. In fact:
• iPhone and Android users browse the Internet more often than anyone else [Morgan Stanley], contributing to Google’s 5x mobile search growth over the past two years
• And a quarter of these same iPhone and Android users spend nearly 90 minutes per day using applications on their devices [AdMob]
Despite the tremendous growth in mobile usage and the substantial investment by many businesses in the space, the mobile web is still in its early stages. We believe that great mobile advertising products can encourage even more growth in the mobile ecosystem. That’s what has us excited about this deal.

AS per CISCO VNI Global predections;

Globally, mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times between 2008 and 2013 and Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80 percent of global mobile traffic by 2013.

Two interesting presentation of Mobile trends in next decade highlights similar trends;

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comparing WiMAX 16m and LTE on;

• Technology performance
• Peak Data Rates
• Average Data Rates
• Latency
• VoIP
• Latency
• Handover Performance

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Not long ago, having access to the Internet, by any means, seemed more than enough. But today, broadband access is becoming essential, since many of the most effective applications and services which help foster development are only available through a high-speed Internet connection – and notably those related to telemedicine, e-commerce, e-banking and e-government. Broadband-based applications have a far greater impact on people, society and businesses than their narrowband equivalents.

Broadband is not longer viewed as a value-added service, it has now been proven to be robust economic growth engine which accelerates economic development in emerging markets and drive cost efficiencies in mature ones.

A recent study done by World Bank found a 10% increase in broadband penetration corresponds to a GDP per capita increase of 1.2% In emerging markets and 1.4% in developed markets

In the case of broadband, a few far-sighted governments are now recognizing that the Internet will soon become the central delivery mechanism for just about every kind of community service.

• Medical imaging is forecast to account for over 30% of global data storage capacity by 2010.
• Online learning is bringing the outside world into the classroom in increasingly compelling ways.
• The arrival of the ‘Internet of Things’ is already driving up volumes of pure machine-to-machine data exchange, and researchers estimate that there are now well over 100 billion communication-enabled devices on the Net.
• Sensors and monitoring systems will help city authorities manage traffic flows, electricity distribution, and service delivery logistics, and respond to variables like weather.

We have seen spectacular progress in access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in general, and millions of people in the world’s UN-designated Least Developed Countries (LDCs) now have basic access to the Internet – but growth rates and access speeds are still nowhere near fast enough, especially in the developing world. So while Europe had a fixed broadband penetration rate of 20% at the end of 2008, and the Americas region had 13%, it was only 4% in Asia&Pacific, and just 0.1% in Africa – meaning just one fixed broadband subscriber in Africa per thousand people (see chart).

At the beginning of 2009, developing countries accounted for just over a third (39%) of the 412 million fixed broadband subscribers around the world. If China – the largest fixed broadband market in the world – is excluded from the figures, then the developing country share drops to just 19%, or only one in six of the world’s fixed broadband Internet subscribers.

One of the main reasons for this glaring inequality is the massive disparity not just in the price but the affordability of a broadband connection. Broadband subscriptions cost less than 1% of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in the top 15 countries included in the fixed broadband Internet sub-basket published in the ITU’s 2009 report, Measuring the Information Society, and under 2.5% of GNI per capita in a further 25 countries. At the other end of the scale, however, in the lowest 30 countries in the list – most of which are LDCs – broadband subscriptions cost over 100% of GNI per capita. At that price, it’s little wonder they’re not more popular.

Download the broadband report from ITU

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Until just over a year ago, Gong ­Kangshun spent much of his life trekking over the mountains around his remote village in south-west China. It isn’t easy to make a living in Xiuxi, a tiny settlement of 58 families deep in Aba county, Sichuan. Gong grows crops on a small plot and sells rare fungi found on the steep slopes nearby. Many young people, including his brother, leave to find work in the factories and shops of China’s east.

But a single purchase has shortened his working hours and sent his income soaring – by helping him to find buyers for his fungi. It has even improved his relationships with family and friends. “I’d panic without my mobile phone,” the 35-year-old admits.

Read the full article….

Download presentation

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Thanks to everyone who joined us in the webinar today, officially launching our new book ANYWHERE: How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business. For the discussion, I was joined by five terrific thought-leaders in the connectivity space:

* Glenn Lurie, President, Emerging Devices, AT&T
* Walter McCormick, President & CEO, U.S. Telecom Association
* Paul Sagan, President & CEO, Akamai Technologies
* Sriram Viswanathan, VP, Architecture Group, Intel
* Nigel Waller, Founder & CEO, Movirtu, Ltd.

A special thanks to each of them for taking the time to chat about Anywhere and illustrate their own business’ opportunities and challenges. If you missed the presentation, the replay is below–I would be delighted to hear your thoughts.

The webinar runs about an hour: audio (mp3) and slides (pdf).

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Original audio source (2010-01-14-11.02-Introducing-ANYWHERE_-the-book.mp3)

The US claims two of the biggest 4G flagwavers in the world, Clearwire for WiMAX and Verizon Wireless for LTE, and both were showing off their wares at the Consumer Electronics Show last week, while Clearwire was also announcing a live network in Spain.

The operator, which is backed by Sprint, Intel, Google and three cablecos, was providing WiMAX coverage, and device rentals, at the show, having recently gone live in Las Vegas. And various WiMAX devices made their debut, including Sprint’s Overdrive portable hotspot, which connects up to five Wi-Fi gadgets via a shared mobile broadband connection.

In terms of real experience, WiMAX certainly upstaged LTE, especially as the major cellcos were scarcely visible at CES, apart from Verizon issuing an update on LTE progress. This is despite the fact that both WiMAX and LTE will rely heavily on non-phone devices for their success and to differentiate their services, as wireless becomes embedded in a wide range of CE products.

The importance of Clearwire’s high profile at the show, then, was not really about its choice of WiMAX, although this is indeed the first of the truly broadband mobile standards. It was more about sending a signal that the WiMAX community is ready for the new age of ubiquitous wireless, cloud services and anywhere internet access. This community is dominated by carriers seeking to steal a march on their rivals by taking an early position in this new world, whether directly or via a partnership with a WiMAX network owner (like Sprint’s with Clearwire).

Sprint’s CEO Dan Hesse was pursuing this theme in an investor update last week. He said that WiMAX would be “enormously important” for the company this year, and that “2010 is the year of 4G for Sprint”. This is because Sprint will be able to hold mobile broadband tariffs stable by offering more capacity, plus device choices like the new Overdrive portable hotspot, but its cost of delivery of broadband should be lower, the more traffic goes over WiMAX rather than 3G.

The Overdrive is one of a new breed of gadgets that allows a broadband connection to be shared between various devices, usually via Wi-Fi. The Novatel MiFi has been a popular example in 3G, but arch-rival Sierra Wireless has come up with the Overdrive for Sprint/Clearwire. It shares a WiMAX link between up to five Wi-Fi enabled products, or connects via EV-DO where the 4G network is not available.

This increases the value of a mobile broadband subscription, and doing this via WiMAX rather than 3G gives Sprint a clear competitive edge where that network is available, because the bandwidth and capacity will support more devices and a better experience. Such routers can be used as ad hoc hotspots for multiple users, or to connect a range of different gadgets such as netbooks, gaming consoles or cameras, as well as phones. Sprint said WiMAX was sufficient to support HD video or audio streaming simultaneously with web surfing and games playing.

The Overdrive will be sold at from January 10 in 10 markets, via Best Buy, whose CEO was also at the event. It will cost $100 after a $50 mail-in rebate, with two-year contract for Sprint’s 3G/4G data service, whose prices start at about $60 a month. Sprint now offers the Clearwire service in 27 markets across the US.

As Clearwire itself has seen with its own router from Cradlepoint, such devices not only enhance the perceived value of a broadband subscription and encourage users to commit to contracts, but bring the huge base of Wi-Fi enabled devices into the WiMAX fold, so that customers do not have to wait until they have a WiMAX laptop or MID before they invest in a connection.

Although the Overdrive garnered plenty of attention in Las Vegas, the biggest Clearwire news of the week came from the other side of the Atlantic, where the carrier launched WiMAX services in the Spanish city of Malaga. Although Clearwire owns spectrum in many parts of Europe, and even runs networks in some places such as Ireland and Denmark, this is its first standards-based WiMAX operation to go commercial in the continent.

It is likely to look for wholesale partners/investors, as in the US, and also to use its Spanish deployments as a proof of concept for mobile broadband in the 3.5 GHz band. Although this spectrum is available and affordable in many regions, it has been considered expensive for mobile deployments because of its short range, but as operators look to smaller cells for urban build-outs, it is gaining new interest, and Clearwire hopes to tap into this.

The Malaga offering covers 600,000 people so far, under the Instanet brand, and promises average download speeds of 3 Mbps to 6 Mbps, with peaks of 10 Mbps, at tariffs from €29.90 a month.

Clearwire CEO Bill Morrow also confirmed what he has previously hinted – that he is actively courting further wholesale partners and MVNOs to join Sprint and the cablecos. He told news agency Reuters that T-Mobile USA, Leap Wireless and MetroPCS could “make sense as partners” despite their competition with Sprint and also said Clearwire was in talks with further cablecos, satellite operators, smaller telcos and consumer electronics companies for wholesale partnerships. He added that the network would be ramped up to support a wider range of MVNOs.

Meanwhile, on the LTE front, Verizon Wireless demonstrated various device prototypes at CES to whet the appetite for the upcoming standard, as well as showing apps such as streaming video and live videoconferencing. The carrier said it was also collaborating with  partners, notably Ericsson, for vertical market applications in areas such as the enterprise or healthcare – expected to be an important additional revenue stream, to top up consumer broadband income.

The videoconferencing demo used portable units from Creative Labs, which replaced Wi-Fi and Ethernet in its InPerson system with LTE. It is working to shrink InPerson products and incorporate an LTE module based on its Zii chip to make live videoconferencing fully mobile. In another demo, the movie Up was streamed in 1080p HD video over LTE at 4Mbps to a small tablet made by Motorola, with a processor from Nvidia, embedded LTE, and a user interface from Innovative Converged Devices.